Category: Currencies
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook for July 22, 2024 – Fed & ECB Rate Cuts on the Horizon, Biden Withdraws
Biden has decided to step back from the presidential race, and this event, following the attack on Donald Trump, further fuels uncertainty about the outcome of the November election. Meanwhile, the market is convinced of a Fed Funds rate cut in September. The ECB remains on standby, announcing a possible move in September if inflation…
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook July 8, 2024 – French Vote Shakes Markets
The French elections seem to have almost benefited the euro, which had dangerously approached critical support levels. The prospect of political stagnation combined with uncertainties on the American electoral front, as well as a certain stand-by on interest rates, help to keep the trading range on EurUsd active.
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook for July 1, 2024 – Eurozone Risks Overlooked Amid Market Highs & Political Uncertainties
Key Events Impacting Markets: Trump-Biden Debate and French Election Last week was largely influenced by two main events: the first Trump-Biden debate and anticipation for the French election, where Macron’s tenure at the Élysée is at stake. The final round of the French election will be on July 7, but the current state of tension…
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EurUsd Weekly Outlook June 24, 2024 – Euro Tensions and Dollar Dynamics
French Elections and the Fed Under Scrutiny France remains at the forefront with its political crisis, expected to be resolved soon with the upcoming political elections. Currently, the euro is experiencing some pressure, though it is relatively mild. The spread between France and Germany has surged beyond 70 basis points, the highest in the last…
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook for June 17, 2024 – Fed Stance and European Politics Drive Market
Europe has weathered the impact of nationalism after the parliamentary elections, although there have been some national disruptions (see France), which are weighing down the euro. In the United States, inflation continues to slow, but the Federal Reserve has informed the markets that there will be at most two rate cuts in 2024, postponing expansionary…
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook for June 3, 2024 – Favorable Euro Window Amidst Inflation Concerns
ECB Rate Decision Nears Amid Rising European Inflation The ECB’s rate decision is approaching, and the preliminary inflation data for May is crucial for understanding whether Frankfurt will act in this direction or be swayed by some conflicting signals that have emerged in recent days. Inflation is indeed rising in Germany, according to preliminary May…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for May 27, 2024 – Low Volatility and Central Bank Anticipation
The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting highlighted that it is still not time to cut rates in the United States. Upcoming data will be crucial in determining if such a move will be made in 2024, while the ECB appears ready to proceed with it as early as June. EUR/USD remains without clear…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for May 20, 2024 – Inflation Weighs on the Dollar
U.S. Inflation Moderates, Boosting Euro Against Dollar Inflation is aiding the euro, which is approaching resistance levels that, if breached, could trigger a rally for the single currency. We’ll delve into this more in our regular technical analysis section on EUR/USD. As expected, the key market mover this week was the U.S. April inflation data.…
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EurUsd Weekly Outlook for May 13, 2024 – Eyeing Rate Cuts in Europe
A week not abundant with macroeconomic insights as we await American inflation data. The market is settling on the idea that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates from September onwards. The partial asynchrony with the Eurozone, where the cost of borrowing is expected to begin decreasing from June, has favored a return of EurUsd…
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Weekly Outlook for EurUsd as of May 6, 2024 – Dollar’s Defense Tested Amidst Economic Uncertainty
As predicted, the Fed keeps rates unchanged at 5.5%, while simultaneously slowing down the pace of reducing the central bank’s balance sheet. The economy continues to run at full throttle, coupled with low unemployment, which prevents inflation from decreasing as expected, forcing the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. The dollar remains strong but…