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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, September 29 2025: Dollar Struggles on Fed Caution, Geopolitical Risks
The currency market remains stuck. After its recent rate cut, the Fed is preaching caution, citing inflation risks and tariff pressures. The White House, meanwhile, is loudly pushing for lower borrowing costs while reigniting the trade tariff debate. In Europe, growth is stagnant, and the possibility of an escalation with Russia can no longer be…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook – September 15, 2025: War in Europe and Fed Rate Cuts
Tensions are rising along Europe’s eastern borders after Russia’s incursion into Poland. The situation has boosted safe-haven assets such as gold and temporarily halted the dollar’s slide, though the greenback remains close to critical levels against the euro. In France, the government has collapsed, and President Emmanuel Macron is making another attempt by handing the…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, September 8, 2025: Powell to Cut Rates
U.S. Jobs Market Hits a Wall The week’s pivotal release came from the U.S. labor market—and it disappointed. Just over 20,000 new jobs were created, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest since late 2021. The White House, eager for evidence of a slowdown driven by high rates, found just that. With tariffs largely…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, September 1, 2025: Fed Pressure and France’s Political Turmoil Shape the Trend
Trump Pressures the Fed as France’s Crisis Lifts Dollar After Powell’s dovish signals at Jackson Hole, the White House stepped up its confrontation with the Fed, demanding Governor Cook’s removal on allegations of fraud. Whether or not the accusations hold, Donald Trump’s not-so-subtle effort to steer monetary policy toward a looser stance is becoming increasingly…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, August 14, 2025: Tariffs and a Weak Dollar, the Story Continues
Trump is keeping tariff tensions high, with India becoming the latest target of a renewed 50% hike following Brazil. Europe, for now, appears to be out of the immediate line of fire, though the threat of further escalation—should trade agreements not be honored—remains, with pharmaceutical products still under the constant shadow of potential tariffs. After…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, August 4, 2025 – Euro Pulls Back as Tariffs Rise and Fed Holds Rates
The trade war enters a new phase with agreements reached with the EU and Japan, but fresh tensions flare toward Canada, India, Brazil, and Switzerland. The tycoon seized on the disappointing jobs report to pressure Powell into delivering a rate cut. After testing key support levels, EUR/USD is once again moving higher.
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, July 28, 2025 – Dollar Under Pressure as Tariff Deals Advance and ECB Holds the Line
Tariff Deals Take Shape as Trump Targets Powell and ECB Signals Pause Recent developments on the tariff front suggest the White House is serious about securing definitive trade deals before summer’s end. Japan has now agreed to Washington’s demands for a more balanced trade relationship, accepting a 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. and…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, July 14, 2025: Trade Tensions Resurface as 1.20 Comes into View
The trade war returns to center stage. With the suspension window now closed, the White House has begun sending letters to every country that failed to agree to its proposed trade deals. Nations like Brazil now face tariffs of 50%, Japan 25%, and Canada 35%. In response, the Fed is taking a cautious stance on…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, July 7 2025: Trump-Powell Rift Deepens as Euro Targets 1.20
The trade war may be dormant, but it’s far from over—and in the meantime, a war of words is heating up in the U.S. between Trump and Powell. The latter, aware of the need to ease borrowing costs for the American economy, stated that interest rates would already be lower if tariffs weren’t in place.…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, June 30, 2025 -Euro Eyes 1.20 as Dollar Slides on Middle East Truce and Fed Shake-Up
The war between Israel and Iran already appears to be over, with the announcement of a ceasefire bringing renewed calm to markets and oil prices—while pushing the dollar even lower. Meanwhile, Trump has begun his search for Powell’s replacement at the Fed, and markets are now pricing in a rate cut as early as September,…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, June 24, 2025 – War Tensions Offer Little Support to the Dollar
The EUR/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions, notably the Israel-Iran conflict, overshadow market hopes for U.S. rate cuts. With the Federal Reserve holding firm and oil prices elevated, the dollar draws strength from global uncertainty, while technical indicators hint at possible consolidation before any decisive move.
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – June 16, 2025: War Erupts, Dollar Weakens as Euro Eyes 1.15 Breakout
China and the United States appear to have reached an initial draft of a trade agreement, including tariff reductions and the lifting of certain export bans on goods like rare earths and technology. Yet markets remained lukewarm despite the encouraging U.S. inflation data. The military tensions between Iran and Israel have not stopped EUR/USD from…