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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, February 24, 2025 – Geopolitical Shifts and Market Stalemate
The situation in Europe, and especially in Ukraine, is rapidly deteriorating following Donald Trump’s shocking about-face on Ukraine. The tycoon’s decision to seek an agreement by initially involving only Russia and asking Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky to take a step back marks the rupture of the alliance supporting the invaded country. The geopolitical crisis risks…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for February 17, 2025 – Inflation, Central Bank Policies, and Key Resistance Levels
Donald Trump continues to dominate the geopolitical stage with a strong attempt to bring Ukraine and Russia to the peace table. Paradoxically, Europe and the euro stand to benefit financially, with the German elections serving as the market mover of the month. Meanwhile, in the U.S., inflation rises to 3%, extinguishing any hopes of a…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, February 10, 2025 – Trump’s Tariff Maneuvers and Europe’s Economic Response
Trump follows through on his promise by imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, only to suspend it a few hours later to allow for negotiations and reach an acceptable solution. The markets were rattled but managed to recover the losses in subsequent sessions. EUR/USD once again confirms the strength of the 1.02 support…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for February 3, 2025 – Fed Holds Steady, ECB Cuts Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
As the clash between the Fed and Trump intensifies, Governor Powell stays the course, communicating to the markets that now is not the time to cut interest rates. Inflation and economic conditions do not support such a move, with the uncertainty of tariffs looming, becoming reality starting in February. Exactly the same reasons, but in…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for January 27, 2025 – Trump’s Tariff Threats & Inflation Concerns
Trump is the new President of the United States and immediately announces a series of measures that will fuel US growth, inflation, and also create tensions with trade partners like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. The euro reacted well to the test of the 1.02 support level following Lagarde’s less dovish remarks. Pullback or something else?
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – January 20, 2025: Parity in Sight as Dollar Strengthens Amid Global Economic Shifts
Trump is officially the new president of the United States, and now the market awaits clarity on the much-discussed protectionist measures. The forex market remains volatile, with the euro struggling to recover after better-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Meanwhile, in Germany, it is now certain that 2024 will be marked by another economic recession.
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Weekly EurUsd Outlook, January 13, 2025 – Trump’s Return and Dollar Strength Amid Euro Weakness
Trump now dominates the global political and economic stage on a daily basis. With his official inauguration imminent, we are about to grapple with real policy decisions. The American economy continues on its growth path, while Europe struggles. Inflationary pressures loom on the horizon, with tariffs potentially increasing price pressures. The dollar is benefiting from…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, January 6, 2025 – Gas Crisis and Interest Rates Impacting the Euro
The gas war reignites tensions over energy prices in Europe and also puts pressure on the euro, whose performance is hindered by political concerns in key countries like France and Germany, as well as macroeconomic data that continues to offer little reassurance regarding recovery. Meanwhile, expectations grow for Trump’s inauguration at the White House.
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2025 EurUsd Outlook – What Does the New Year Hold for the Euro and Dollar?
A 2025 filled with both certainties and uncertainties is about to unfold. The United States, Europe, China, wars, inflation, and interest rates will continue to drive content and volatility in markets that, in 2024, delivered robust performance in equities, stagnation in bonds, and a strong dollar, fueled by significant economic and interest rate differentials between…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for December 16, 2024 – Inflation and ECB Rate Cuts Shape Market Sentiment
The two most important central banks in the world will close out 2024 with similarly intense rate cuts. The ECB has already announced its 25 basis point reduction, and the Fed will follow suit next week. However, the path for the new year appears divergent, which explains the strength of the dollar, which remains firmly…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for December 9, 2024 – European Crisis Deepens as U.S. Economy Strengthens
The European political and economic crisis is worsening. Following Germany, France may also face new elections after the collapse of the Barnier government, or Macron will need to try to form a new government. This crisis contrasts with a U.S. economy that is thriving, which of course strengthens the U.S. dollar. However, technically, we still…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – December 2, 2024: Tariffs, Inflation, and Central Bank Decisions Shape the Path Ahead
The new American president, Trump, wasted no time in warning neighboring countries and China about upcoming tariffs on imports, at least until drug trafficking and illegal immigration into the US are halted. Meanwhile, in Europe, inflation is showing signs of awakening, reigniting concerns over the extent of the next ECB rate cut.
