Tag: ECB
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, December 22: The World According to Trump
The U.S. economy failed to generate jobs in the past quarter, a consequence of the government shutdown and, likely, of consumers becoming more cautious as inflation struggles to ease. Trump has sought to reassure the country by placing confidence in the future Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to lower interest rates. The dollar, meanwhile,…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, December 15: Geopolitics Back in the Driver’s Seat
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing them into the 3.5%–3.75% range, while striking a cautious tone on its next moves. At the same time, tensions are rising between President Trump and European leaders over Ukraine, with the tycoon increasingly aligned with Russian positions and eager to seal a deal…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, December 8: Markets Edge Higher as Fed Cut Looms
Markets are entering the Federal Reserve meeting with only modest volatility, given an outcome that appears all but certain. What remains unclear is whether December’s rate cut will be followed by additional easing moves, especially with macro data that doesn’t seem to justify further intervention. In the meantime, the dollar continues to lose ground, slipping…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 24, 2025: Black Friday Gives the Dollar a Boost
It was a positive week for the dollar, which regained ground as macroeconomic data slowly returned following the shutdown freeze. The labor-market figures were the most anticipated among the releases, arriving just as the race to replace Powell officially begins. Five candidates are now expected to be in contention for the role of the next…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 17, 2025: Shutdown Ends, but at What Cost?
The longest shutdown in U.S. history has come to an end after Congress approved a temporary plan to lift the debt ceiling through January, leaving behind an inevitable economic slowdown that has done little to unsettle equity or currency markets. The situation adds uncertainty to how the Federal Reserve will act before year-end. EUR/USD has…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, November 10 2025: The Dollar Benefits from Uncertainty
The longest shutdown in U.S. history has unfolded amid uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court’s pending ruling on tariffs and an unexpectedly hawkish turn in U.S. interest rate expectations following comments from Fed Chair Powell. As a result, the dollar regained ground, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.15. With key macro data and futures market positioning still…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 3, 2025: Rates Fall as China Moves Closer
Trump’s Asian Tour Brings Renewed Momentum Donald Trump’s Asian tour underscores the growing importance of Pacific alliances, strengthening ties with Japan and South Korea—two nations that had clashed with Washington over tariffs in recent months. The trip also highlights Trump’s intent to reach an agreement with China, marked by his meeting with President Xi and…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, September 8, 2025: Powell to Cut Rates
U.S. Jobs Market Hits a Wall The week’s pivotal release came from the U.S. labor market—and it disappointed. Just over 20,000 new jobs were created, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest since late 2021. The White House, eager for evidence of a slowdown driven by high rates, found just that. With tariffs largely…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, August 14, 2025: Tariffs and a Weak Dollar, the Story Continues
Trump is keeping tariff tensions high, with India becoming the latest target of a renewed 50% hike following Brazil. Europe, for now, appears to be out of the immediate line of fire, though the threat of further escalation—should trade agreements not be honored—remains, with pharmaceutical products still under the constant shadow of potential tariffs. After…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, August 4, 2025 – Euro Pulls Back as Tariffs Rise and Fed Holds Rates
The trade war enters a new phase with agreements reached with the EU and Japan, but fresh tensions flare toward Canada, India, Brazil, and Switzerland. The tycoon seized on the disappointing jobs report to pressure Powell into delivering a rate cut. After testing key support levels, EUR/USD is once again moving higher.