Tag: ECB
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook – June 9, 2025: Dollar Weakens as ECB Cuts Rates and Trump Tensions Mount
The ECB followed through on expectations, cutting rates while taking comfort in inflation that shows no signs of reigniting. In the U.S., the latest employment data confirmed the underlying strength of the American economy, though wage pressures are once again creeping higher. The EUR/USD remains firmly supported, hovering near key resistance levels that could prove…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, June 2, 2025 – Tariff Turmoil, Euro Optimism, and a Stalled Breakout
A surprise court ruling declaring Trump-era tariffs illegal has thrown a wrench into U.S. trade policy. The decision, which briefly cast doubt over the administration’s legal footing, was quickly overturned on appeal. Markets and the dollar wavered amid the uncertainty—but Trump seized the moment to escalate further, announcing a doubling of tariffs on steel and…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, May 26, 2025: Rising Yields and Market Reactions Amid U.S. Debt Downgrade
The U.S. credit rating downgrade continues to have negative effects on the bond market, with long-term yields globally starting to rise again. U.S. debt is worrying the bond market, as well as the dollar, which struggles to break through key support levels against the euro. Meanwhile, Trump threatens Europe with 50% tariffs.
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, May 12, 2025: U.S.Fed Patience, Trade Talks, and Eurozone Hopes
The Fed holds rates steady, with Chair Powell emphasizing the central bank’s independence and a patient stance, as current economic conditions do not warrant immediate action. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues its tariff negotiations, sealing an initial deal with the UK and signaling a compromise with China. In Europe, Friedrich Merz has taken office as…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, May 5, 2025: Recession Hits U.S. as Euro Finds Breathing Room
The U.S. economy slipped into reverse in the first quarter of 2025, with inflation ticking higher. That was the key message from the latest GDP release, as a surge in imports weighed heavily on growth. In Europe, inflation remains subdued, giving the euro a chance to regroup after its sharp rally in recent weeks amid…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, April 28, 2025: Trump’s Shift Eases Volatility, Dollar Remains Under Pressure
Trump seems to have recognized that pulling too hard risks breaking the rope — with equity, bond, and currency markets serving as clear indicators of mounting uncertainty. His partial retreat on China and Fed policy has given markets some breathing room, though the dollar remains under persistent pressure.
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook April 21, 2025: Trump Clashes with Powell as Dollar Tests Critical Lows
Powell Holds the Line as Trump Turns Up the Heat and Trade Tensions Escalate The Fed isn’t coming to Trump’s rescue—quite the opposite. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week revealed a growing rift between the central bank and the White House. Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will remain independent of political pressure. He…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, April 7, 2025: Trade War Triggers Volatility and Shifts Market Dynamics
Trump’s Tariffs Spark Global Trade War and Economic Uncertainty The day of reckoning has arrived. Or rather, the day of liberation. But also, the day of surrender, judging by the markets’ reaction. As promised during his campaign, Trump shook the world with his decision to impose tariffs on imports from numerous countries, starting with a…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for March 3, 2025 –Navigating Stagflation and Shifting Market Dynamics
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but warns the markets that the economy will slow down, with inflation struggling to fall from current levels. There may be (perhaps) two more rate cuts in 2025, with Trump urging immediate action. Meanwhile, in Europe, new defense investment plans and the expansion of Germany’s budget bring optimism to…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for February 17, 2025 – Inflation, Central Bank Policies, and Key Resistance Levels
Donald Trump continues to dominate the geopolitical stage with a strong attempt to bring Ukraine and Russia to the peace table. Paradoxically, Europe and the euro stand to benefit financially, with the German elections serving as the market mover of the month. Meanwhile, in the U.S., inflation rises to 3%, extinguishing any hopes of a…