EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 24, 2025: Black Friday Gives the Dollar a Boost

• The U.S. is finally getting fresh federal economic data after the shutdown freeze. September’s jobs numbers were the most anticipated. Solid overall, but with a few lingering questions.
• Europe offered little in the way of major news, aside from rising tensions around the U.K. ahead of Prime Minister Starmer’s new budget plan.
• EUR/USD is slipping back toward key support levels after a string of negative sessions, driven by fading expectations for U.S. rate cuts. The 1.14 area is now in sight.

The Race to Replace Powell Has Begun

The slow flow of U.S. macro data is finally resuming after the historic shutdown, filling in the gaps left by weeks without federal releases. September’s labor-market figures took center stage, though October and November will provide the clearest picture of how much the prolonged federal freeze has weighed on economic momentum.

September saw payrolls rise but unemployment tick higher as jobless claims increased. The concern now is that October, fully affected by the shutdown, could paint an even weaker picture.

In Washington, the race to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair is officially underway. According to the Treasury Secretary, five candidates remain in contention, each seen as more dovish than the current chair. Whoever steps in will inherit a divided FOMC, with the hawkish bloc, arguing firmly against a December rate cut, regaining influence. Long-term yields have climbed back above 4%, lending fresh support to the dollar and reducing the odds of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting.

For now, capital flows continue to favor the U.S. TIC data show foreign purchases of American assets, particularly equities, surged above $200 billion in September. Meanwhile, Trump’s trade agenda is expected to reduce the outflow of dollars abroad in an effort to narrow the trade deficit.

Europe generated little market-moving news this week, aside from another dip in business and consumer confidence. The geopolitical overhang of the Ukraine crisis remains ever-present, especially amid discussion of a new U.S.–Russia ceasefire framework.
Markets are also watching Japan, where long-term yields have climbed above their Chinese counterparts, sending the yen sharply lower. And in the U.K., investors are awaiting Starmer’s new fiscal plan and the Bank of England’s next moves following an inflation report that undershot expectations, strengthening the case for additional rate cuts.

Are These the Dollar’s Last Bursts of Strength?

The Dollar Index has bounced off long-term support levels, hinting that the period of dollar weakness may be ending. If so, the relative performance between gold and silver—where silver has strongly outperformed over recent months—could also be approaching a turning point. Long-term support levels appear to reinforce this scenario.

Yet as often happens, spending too much time sitting on support can signal a lack of buyers rather than a coming reversal. That’s why, despite the setup pointing toward a “long dollar and gold vs. silver” strategy, we prefer to take a less absolute approach and wait for stronger market confirmation before embracing a fully bullish view on the U.S. currency.

EUR/USD Presses Back Toward 1.14

EUR/USD’s latest sharp decline is hard to overlook. The exchange rate is once again approaching the pivotal 1.14 zone—the technical dividing line between a renewed bearish trend or continued range-bound trading that could support new euro highs.

The 1.14 area coincides with the July low, the pivot of a double-top formation, and just above it sits the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern. A break below would likely open a path toward 1.10, setting the stage for a deeper correction.